No Time To Mope As Wildcats Look To Pounce On Buckeyes

Before getting too deep into the article, a quick word to my main man Shannon Sommers…Get well soon.  Hoping all of the fans of our podcast drop Shannon a line wishing him well.

Congratulations to Penn State on the 24-21 victory over Ohio State in Beaver Stadium on October 22nd.  The team that wanted it more won the game, plain and simple.  Fans can make excuses, and I pin the loss to Penn State more on poor coaching, but I believe Eleven Warriors’ Ramzy Nasrallah stated it best with this tweet on Saturday evening…

Play better than having to rely on a 4th quarter whistle to a 19-point underdog, IMO

— Ramzy Nasrallah (@ramzy) October 23, 2016

On to Northwestern, a team that has won its last three games, and scored at least 24 points in every one of those victories.  Northwestern is led by the best running back in The B1G that nobody truly talks about, and that is Justin Jackson.  Jackson has rushed for 792 yards this season, with six touchdowns on the ground, and will be the primary concern of the Ohio State defense.

Not taking away from the rest of the Wildcat offense, QB Clayton Thorson (14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions) and WR Austin Carr (50 receptions, 9 touchdowns) are going to keep the Buckeye defense on their toes all day.  As much as Ohio State likes to rotate its defensive linemen throughout the game, it may be difficult, as Northwestern likes to run a quick tempo, as do the Buckeyes.

Below are three areas I will be focusing upon when this game kicks off at 3:30pm EST on ESPN

• Can the Ohio State passing game evolve?  Ever since Tom Herman left as Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, combined with the loss of WR Devin Smith to the NFL, both after the 2014 season, Ohio State has not been able, or willing, to develop a deep pass threat.  Noah Brown is more of a possession receiver who can be virtually unstoppable in the red zone.  Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson are both hybrid players, and reliable as outlet receivers for J.T. Barrett.  Will Ohio State start throwing deep, in order to get opposing defenses to quit crowding the line of scrimmage?

• Will Ohio State give Isaiah Prince some help with pass protection?  This is not meant as a slam on Prince, as he is a first-year starter, and a true sophomore.  Last week against Penn State, Prince was repeatedly beaten by the Nittany Lion pass rush (see below).  With native Ohioan and one-time Ohio State recruit Ifeadi Odenigbo coming into town, will the Buckeyes give Prince some help, possibly with a tight end or running back on passing downs? 

Ohio State RT Isaiah Prince allowed 14 QB pressures vs Penn State—the highest number we have recorded for an individual single player.

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) October 26, 2016

• Is the Ohio State offense still very predictable?  On short yardage, especially on third down, it is highly likely that Ohio State is going to have J.T. Barrett run the ball.  If I am predicting this on a frequent basis, how probable is it that opposing defensive coordinators are doing the same?  Ohio State has fallen into a pattern of running the ball on first down – if the play is shut down for minimal yardage, the likelihood of a short yardage pass play is increased on second and third down.  This goes back to my first point from up above – throwing deep will open up the entire field, and playbook, if called frequently enough.

Prediction:  Shannon and I have often stated on our podcast that there is a reason why Las Vegas is continually building new hotels and casinos.  With that statement, I do find it surprising that the oddsmakers have installed the Buckeyes as such prohibitive favorites, especially after how the team performed last week in Beaver Stadium.  I do believe the Buckeyes will bounce back, but do not think it will be as easy as the oddsmakers have suggested.  I have it Ohio State 42, Northwestern 24.

Wisconsin Hopes To Make Ohio State Wince And Weep

October 13, 2003.  Undefeated Ohio State, riding a nineteen game unbeaten streak, comes into Camp Randall to battle the Wisconsin Badgers, led by Barry Alvarez.  Jim Tressel's team battles valiantly, but fall to Ohio native and Wisconsin WR Lee Evans outracing Ohio State's Chris Gamble to the end zone, 17-10.

October 17, 2010. Undefeated and top-ranked Ohio State come into Camp Randall, eager to demonstrate to the nation and the Wisconsin Badgers, led by Bret Bielema, that the Buckeyes are truly worthy of their status as the BCS frontrunner.  Jim Tressel's team again battles valiantly, but fall to one-time Ohio State recruit and Wisconsin RB John Clay's two touchdowns, 31-18.
What did those games from the past have in common with this upcoming contest?

• Both games were in Camp Randall Stadium
• Both games were at night

Now that I have your attention, here are three critical areas I will be keeping an eye on when this contest kicks off at 8pm EST on ABC...

1. Can Ohio State Develop Offensive Balance Against Wisconsin? ~ Ohio State's J.T. Barrett's passing statistics from his game against Indiana were as follows - 9/21 for 93 yards, with 1 touchdown to Dontre Wilson, and 1 interception that glanced off the hands of Marcus Baugh.  Barrett was tremendously successful running the ball against Indiana, leading the Buckeyes with 137 yards on the ground.  Look for Wisconsin to do everything possible to bottle up Ohio State's running game.  Will Ohio State be able to counter effectively through the air against the Badgers?  Something else to be seen - how the Ohio State wide receivers respond, after this story emerged on ESPN.com earlier this week.
2. Will Curtis Samuel Be Involved Earlier In The Offensive Gameplan Against Wisconsin? ~ Curtis Samuel had a solid game against Indiana, running for 82 yards and a touchdown.  The larger point is that Samuel did not actually touch the ball until the second quarter began, and Ohio State was tied 3-3 with Indiana.  Will the Ohio State offensive coaches involve Samuel sooner, regardless of whether it involves running or passing?
3. How Will Ohio State Respond To The Camp Randall Challenge? ~  As stated up above, Ohio State has lost to Wisconsin at night on previous occasions.  It must also be noted that Ohio State has defeated Wisconsin in Camp Randall Stadium at night, in 2008, with a true freshman quarterback in Terrelle Pryor.  The larger point is Wisconsin truly revels in the night game atmosphere of Camp Randall Stadium, especially when the Buckeyes come to town.  Yes, Ohio State's young team excelled against Oklahoma at night.  This is another huge test of the maturity and poise of the 2016 Buckeyes.

Prediction:  The player I will keep an eye on throughout is WR Noah Brown.  A physical mismatch, look for Barrett to target Brown repeatedly in this game against Wisconsin.  If Brown can be a consistent possession receiver, especially in the red zone, it will open up opportunities for other offensive weapons within Ohio State's arsenal.  Look for this game to be a typical Ohio State/Wisconsin slugfest, but I see the Buckeyes pulling away in the fourth quarter, with Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 21.

Hoosiers Hoping To Repeat Harsh History Lesson In Ohio Stadium

October 10, 1987.  The Ohio State Buckeyes, ranked 9th in the country with a 3-0-1 record (yes kids, games used to end in ties back in the day…), play host to the 3-1 Indiana Hoosiers.  Most Ohio State fans, yours truly included, looked at this game as an automatic ‘W’, as Ohio State never loses to Indiana.  After all, the last time Indiana defeated Ohio State?  1951, when Indiana beat Ohio State, 32-10.

Maybe someone at Indiana was feeling nostalgic in 1987, and tried to replicate the last Hoosier victory.  The final score in 1987 – Indiana 31, Ohio State 10.

Ohio State’s head coach at the time in 1987?  Earle Bruce.  After the crushing loss, Earle Bruce stated, “I’ve known about Ohio State football since I was a freshman here in 1949.  This is the darkest day in Ohio State football since I have been associated with it.”. 

Remember who was a graduate assistant coach on the 1987 staff?  Urban Meyer.

Saturday’s date for the game is October 8, 2016.  Urban Meyer is now the head coach of Ohio State, and is reveling in the recent Dotting Of The ‘I’ celebration involving former Ohio State head coach Earle Bruce.  Ohio State is undefeated, ranked second in the country, and guess who is coming into Ohio Stadium with a 3-1 record?

Yep.  Indiana.

Fresh off an upset victory over Michigan State, Indiana comes into Ohio Stadium, fully intent on spoiling Ohio State’s dreams of an undefeated season and a shot at a College Football Playoff berth.

#Indiana just beat #MichiganState at football. No. I'm not kidding. #Buckeyes game is way more interesting next week...

— Matt Baxendell (@MattBaxendell) October 2, 2016

I completely agree with Matt Baxendell’s thoughts regarding this game.  Think of it this way ~ Indiana just defeated Michigan State, a team that has crushed Ohio State’s hopes and dreams in 2013 and 2015.  If Ohio State was feeling cocky about their chances with Indiana, chances are that the upset win by the Hoosiers has the Buckeyes coming into this game with better focus.

Below are three critical areas I will be focusing upon as the Ohio State/Indiana game gets underway at 3:30pm EST on ESPN…

1. Can Ohio State Avoid A Sluggish Start Against Indiana?

Against Tulsa, Ohio State was tied 3-3 before the Buckeyes began capitalizing on turnovers near the end of the second quarter.  Last week versus Rutgers, Ohio State only led the Scarlet Knights 6-0 after the first quarter.  Yes, I know that the Buckeyes eventually overwhelmed their opponents.  It would be very reassuring to see the Buckeyes come out with the same type of intensity and dominance in the first quarter as they have demonstrated in the latter portions of games.

2. How Well Will Ohio State’s Secondary Play Against Indiana?

Indiana is averaging about 320 yards a game through the air, while the revamped Ohio State secondary is only giving up about 140 yards a game.  Which unit is going to come out ahead in this crucial matchup?

3. Will Ohio State Control The Clock With The Running Game?

Ohio State ran for 410 yards last weekend against Rutgers.  Mike Weber, Demario McCall, Curtis Samuel, Dontre Wilson…Maybe even Antonio Williams, if the game breaks right.  The best way to keep the Ohio State defense rested is by having them on the sideline, and that all starts with the Ohio State offensive line controlling the line of scrimmage against Indiana.

Prediction:  Indiana has kept it interesting every year against Ohio State, with the exception of 2013.  Urban Meyer is wary of the upset, and wants to see the Buckeyes take care of business at home before two grueling road night games at Wisconsin and at Penn State.  Indiana will keep it close until the fourth quarter, but I like Ohio State to put it away with superior speed and depth.  I am calling it Ohio State 42, Indiana 17.