Breaking Down The Big Ten

On August 30th, almost all of the Big Ten (with the exception of Purdue) will begin their respective seasons. Like most college football fans, I have enjoyed looking through the various preview magazines, listening to podcasts, and catching glimpses of ESPN's College Football Live.

Among the websites (and magazines) that I have truly enjoyed reviewing this summer is from collegefootballnews.com. In their preview, Ohio State has been chosen as the number one team in the country and predicted to go 12-0.

While I truly hope that the above prediction comes to pass, I want to pass along how I believe Ohio State will do, as well as the other teams in the Big Ten. One of the nice things about this blog is everyone will be able to look back to this post and see how well or how poorly I predicted this season ~

1. Ohio State: 11-1 (8-0 in conference play), with a loss at USC on September 13th keeping OSU from the BCS Championship Game. The motivation for Ohio State's vaunted senior class will be to become the first-ever Big Ten Champion three years consecutively. Ohio State winds up in The Rose Bowl. (Again, I hope I am wrong re: USC).

2. Wisconsin: 10-2, losses @ Fresno State on Sept 13th and at home to Ohio State on October 4th (7-1 in conference play). Camp Randall will be rocking on October 4th, but Ohio State pulls out a close one and that is enough to deny Wisconsin The Big Ten title. November 1st @ Michigan State should be a good one. A name to watch out for this year - redshirt freshman RB John Clay.

3. Penn State: 10-2, with losses @ Wisconsin on October 11th and @ Ohio State on October 25th (6-2 in conference play). With QB Darryl Clark running a spread offense similar to what Penn State ran in 2005, I look for Penn State to be tough offensively. The non-conference schedule sets Penn State up nicely for a good season. This is the year Penn State finally defeats Michigan.

T4. Michigan State 8-4, with losses @ California, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and @ Penn State (5-3 in conference play). Michigan State is a team on the rise under the leadership of Coach Mark Dantonio. If Michigan State can defeat California in the opener, I look for Michigan State to be undefeated when Ohio State comes into town on October 18th.

Illinois 8-4, with losses @ Missouri, @ Penn State, @ Wisconsin, and Ohio State (5-3 in conference play). Illinois' young talent will make them competitive in The Big Ten. The loss of RB Rashard Mendenhall will put more of a burden on QB Juice Williams offensively, but I look for Williams to be able to carry the load. The defense should be solid. OLB Martez Wilson will evoke memories of Simeon Rice.

Purdue 7-5, with losses to Oregon, Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State (5-3 in conference play). This is Coach Joe Tiller's last season at Purdue. With the return of QB Curtis Painter, Purdue should be decent offensively. Purdue has developed a reputation for starting out strong and fading, but we'll see in this final season of the Tiller era for Purdue.

T5 Minnesota 7-5, with losses @ Ohio State, @ Illinois, @ Purdue, Michigan, and @ Wisconsin (3-5 in conference play). Probably my biggest surprise team. Look at Minnesota's cupcake non-conference schedule, and you'll see why I believe Minnesota has a decent shot at a bowl berth. I still am not sold on Coach Tim Brewster, but I believe QB Adam Weber will keep Minnesota in contention for a bowl berth.

Iowa 6-6, with losses @ Pitt, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, and @ Minnesota (3-5 in conference play). Considering how Iowa misses both Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule this year, one could almost think they would be a darkhorse Big Ten candidate. Iowa's inconsistent quarterback play, as well as all the off the field issues, will keep Iowa on the border of missing a bowl again. Kirk Ferentz's seat is starting to get a little warm for his lack of results considering his big salary.

T6. Michigan 4-8, with losses to Utah, @ Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Penn State, Michigan State, @ Purdue, and @ Ohio State (2-6 in conference play). I can practically see the e-mails and comments on this one. I am not going to reiterate why I believe Michigan will struggle in 2008 again, as I have previously done so. When I tell Michigan fans that Michigan will struggle offensively due to the personnel on hand for Coach Rodriguez's spread option offense, I am told that the defense will be the shining point for Michigan. While this may turn out to be true, I do not believe Michigan's defense, despite their vaunted new strength and conditioning program, will be enough to offset the offensive problems if they are continually on the field. And I would still like to know how Michigan's defense will be better after losing OLB Shawn Crable. Michigan's offensive line depth is already becoming a concern in Ann Arbor.

I have said it before, and I will say it again - this is a major transition year for Michigan. With another year of experience, and more importantly, recruited personnel in the system, Michigan will be a top contender for The Big Ten championship in 2009.

Northwestern 6-6, with losses @ Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan, and Illinois (2-6 in conference play). Similar to Minnesota, Northwestern's non-conference schedule may be enough to get the Wildcats into bowl eligibility. Even better for Northwestern, they miss Wisconsin and Penn State in league play.

7. Indiana 4-8, with losses to Michigan State, @ Minnesota, Iowa, @ Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, @ Penn State, and @ Purdue (0-8 in non-conference play). Last year, the death of Coach Terry Hoeppner was enough of a motivation to get Indiana into bowl eligibility. On one hand, Indiana misses Ohio State and Michigan, which should help them to stay in contention. On the other hand, and where I feel Indiana will be hurting, is the loss of their best player, star WR James Hardy. The crucial test for Indiana is to come out of the non-conference cupcake schedule undefeated, then to defeat Minnesota and Iowa at the onset of league play. If they can do that, Indiana could again be in contention for a bowl bid.

As always, I am excited to hear from as many of you as possible. I have no doubt that several of my picks will be heavily mocked and debated, but that is what this is all about.

Ohio State Football: How Scheduling Should Work

In today's Columbus Dispatch, there was an article discussing Ohio State's and USC's scheduling philosophies. The article pointed out that USC is playing at Virginia on August 30th, against Ohio State at home on September 13th, and finishes up their non-conference opponents in late November when they play Notre Dame at home. USC will play its other nine games against Pac-10 competition.

By comparison, Ohio State opens up at home against Youngstown State on August 30th, at home against Ohio University on September 6th, plays at USC September 13th, then comes home to play Troy on September 20th. The remaining eight games are against Big Ten competition.

The national perception of Ohio State is that Ohio State does not play anyone - when you read through this article, and compare Ohio State's schedule to USC's schedule, that argument is validated. The article also points out that Ohio State has not always been this way with regards to scheduling. In 1988, Ohio State played Syracuse at home (win), at Pittsburgh (excruciating loss - the end of the honeymoon period for Coach Cooper at Ohio State), and at home against LSU (exciting win in the last seconds). In 1995, Ohio State played Boston College in The Kickoff Classic (win), home over #18 Washington (win), at Pittsburgh (win), and at home against #15 Notre Dame (what a great game that was; another win for Ohio State).

If I were Gene Smith and in charge of scheduling Ohio State's upcoming opponents, I would do the following:

1. No more Youngstown State - I respect Coach Tressel helping out his previous school, and I have no doubt Youngstown State is grateful for the handsome pay day. The reality is Ohio State should not be scheduling any Division 1-AA schools ever.

2. Limit the MAC opponents to one per season - I do respect the rationale in keeping the money in the state of Ohio. I do not mind one Ohio-based MAC opponent (such as Bowling Green, Ohio University, Miami University, Toledo), but that should be it going forward.

3. Start scheduling Big East or SEC teams that are nearby geographically for rivalry purposes - instead of playing Troy, how about Kentucky? How about West Virginia? Pittsburgh? I'll even take Cincinnati. At least these teams are eligible for BCS berths. Tennessee is an upcoming series in 2018 and 2019. Try to get Notre Dame on the schedule again.

4. Play a full Big Ten schedule - I place this one last on the list, as this is a conference decision and not solely up to Gene Smith. I would follow the Pac 10's lead and have all Big Ten teams play ten conference games, leaving two for non-conference games. Yes, I know that means Ohio State would lose a home game every other year, but the strength of schedule argument I have laid out in previous posts would be enhanced by playing other Big Ten teams, rather than what they are doing now.

From The Mind Of Minnich – How Division 1 College Football Playoffs Could (& Should) Work: Part Two

In Part One of my proposal, I discussed how an eight team playoff tournament could work. In Part Two, we will look at a hypothetical setup, based on last year’s results. Before I proceed too much further, a quick apology - I was not able to get a brackets graphic imported adequately enough that it was easy to see. My apologies on that one.

Eight teams would begin the tournament. Traditionally, the conference bowl relationships will be intact, for at least the higher seeded teams in the tournament. In my example, LSU as the SEC champion would automatically go to The Sugar Bowl, Pac-10 champion USC would go to The Rose Bowl, and ACC champion Virginia Tech would go The Orange Bowl. Even though Florida is ranked # 1 (due to strength of schedule), LSU gets the Sugar Bowl bid as SEC champion. In my scenario, The Fiesta Bowl gets the last selection (as they hosted the national championship in 2007, remember?) and gets # 1 seeded Florida. The other teams in the tournament are matched up with their opponents, similarly to the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament.



January 1st

The Fiesta Bowl: # 1 Florida (At-Large Selection) vs # 8 BYU (Mountain West Champion)
The Rose Bowl # 3 Southern Cal (Pac-10 Champion) vs # 6 Oklahoma (Big XII Champion)
The Sugar Bowl: # 2 LSU (SEC Champion) vs # 7 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
The Orange Bowl: # 4 Virginia Tech (ACC Champion) vs # 5 West Virginia (Big East Champion)


Once the tournament begins, the winners will move on to the next round of the tournament – in this hypothetical scenario, The Cotton Bowl in Dallas. On January 8th, game 1 could feature the winner of The Fiesta Bowl (ex: Florida) versus the winner of The Rose Bowl (ex: USC). In game two, the winner of The Sugar Bowl (ex: LSU) would play the winner of The Orange Bowl (ex: West Virginia).

January 15th would again be played in Dallas at The Cotton Bowl. The week between the semi-finals and the national championship would truly rival The Super Bowl for media scrutiny and fan enthusiasm.

What are the benefits to my system? Let us count the ways amidst the traditional arguments against a college football playoff:



What about "The Plus One" idea that was shot down recently? While I truly believe that The Plus One will be the first playoff concept to be eventually used, I do not believe it is the best. The reason why? You are still relying on the human element of rankings by the coaches and media. With my system, all 6 BCS conferences get an automatic shot, the best of the non-BCS conferences gets an automatic berth, and a wild card/At-Large team also gets a shot if they played a tough schedule.



What about a 16 team tournament so all conferences could be included? If I could do that, I would. The problem is it would dramatically increase the number of games in the season, which the university presidents are vehmently opposed to doing. I do believe having all eleven conference champions, plus five At-Large teams chosen by strength of schedule, would be ideal but unrealistic.

The regular season would be rendered meaningless with a playoff system: If the only sure way to get in to the playoffs was winning your conference, that makes those regular season games very meaningful, wouldn’t you say? And it would also behoove schools to beef up their schedules, not load up on creampuff schools, in the event that they did not win their conferences outright.

The bowls would suffer: How? The bowl system is still intact, with traditional conference tie-ins. And the other bowl games would still be determined in the manner that they are now – for those who get excited about The Papajohns.com Bowl or the New Orleans Bowl, rest assured, I have not affected that game or any similar to it. And as for the communities involved in the tournament, especially the national championship host city, can you imagine the economic windfall associated with having thousands of fans visiting the city for a week?

There is too much emphasis with the computers and the strength of schedule component: Strength of schedule would merely determine the seeding of the playoffs, as well as the non-BCS conference team and the one wild card/At-Large team. Again, if you win a major conference, you are guaranteed a spot.

The season would be too long – By one week? And the NCAA Division 1 basketball tournament goes on for several weeks in March. Even the university presidents, the biggest obstacle to a playoff system, would have a tough time answering this one with a straight face. Next question.

What about the non-BCS conferences? – Again, the non-BCS conferences are guaranteed one spot of the eight in the tournament. In the current BCS system, the non-BCS conferences are only guaranteed if they are ranked in the top twelve teams. An important thing to remember – the fifth bowl game, and the non-BCS conference clause (have to be ranked in the top 12 teams) that is presently constituted in the BCS program today, are a result of a potential lawsuit threatened by Tulane in 2003. Under my system, the non-BCS conferences are being represented but this time it has nothing to do with rankings arbitrarily assigned by coaches or the media.


What about Notre Dame and its BCS exception? – See argument # 1. While Notre Dame had a major clunker season last year (3-9), traditionally Notre Dame has played a tough schedule. All that being said, Notre Dame would need to still play a tough schedule to get one of the coveted wild card berths. Last season, Notre Dame’s schedule ranked # 24. No more special rules based on poll rankings for the Irish under my system.

Fans won’t travel to all of these games – Probably the most valid argument of all. Then again, look at the loyalty fans display today when there is no playoff system. Look at the loyalty displayed by basketball fans during the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball Tournament. And look at the loyalty some fans have when it comes to their teams for spring football – do you truly feel that the fans will not want to participate in a playoff tournament?

Just think about all of the issues associated with the BCS that would never have come to pass with a system such as this in place:

• 1998 - Ohio State has the same record as Florida State, yet Florida State gets the title shot against Tennessee. Yes, I know - Ohio State lost late in the year to an unraked Michigan State team, while Florida State lost early in the year to an unranked North Carolina State team. Under my system, all three teams would have had a chance with a playoff tournament like this one. And we haven't even discussed the plights of UCLA or Kansas State in this scenario.




• 2000 - Miami (FL) has the same record as Florida State and had defeated Florida State head to head that season, yet Florida State gets the title shot against Oklahoma. Why not a playoff tournament?




• 2001 - Nebraska gets a title shot against Miami (FL), despite being crushed by Colorado in the last game of the season and Oregon had the same record as the Huskers.




• 2003 - USC, LSU, and Oklahoma all finish with the same record, yet USC does not get a title shot, and the college football fans get a split championship with LSU and USC.




• 2004 - Auburn, USC, and Oklahoma all finish undefeated. Auburn does not get a title shot.




• 2006 - Michigan and Florida both finish with one loss. Florida earns a BCS title shot against Ohio State and wins, yet Michigan was ranked ahead of Florida in the polls before USC lost on the last weekend to UCLA. If USC had won the game as expected, USC would have had the title shot against Ohio State and Florida would never have won the 2006 national championship.

As the eloquent Stewart Mandel wrote in his book Bowls, Polls, & Tarnished Souls, "Rightly or wrongly, college football will turn to a playoff one day." (page 34 of hardcover version). After the 2006 season, Florida president Bernie Machen was quoted, "A playoff is inevitable".

If a playoff is inevitable, wouldn't it be nice getting a system in place like mine sooner rather than later? As always, I am anxious for your comments, and look forward to hearing from hopefully as many of you as possible.

From The Mind Of Minnich – How Division 1 College Football Playoffs Could (& Should) Work: Part One

I consider this time of the year prior to the start of college football season almost like Christmas Eve – the anticipation is virtually impossible to take. College football preview magazines have filled up the magazine racks, and several of them have high hopes for the Ohio State Buckeyes this coming season (so do I, but that will be the subject of another post for another time closer to season start…). With the preseason magazines, several have predicted how Ohio State will be playing for the BCS Championship this coming January 9th, 2009.

While I would love to see Ohio State play for the title again, I would even love more so to see Ohio State earn its national title shot in a college football playoff system. Nothing galls me more at the end of the regular season to hear the media, coaches, and fans all weep, whine, and wail about how some team is undeserving of a title shot, and how we need a playoff system, but how there is not a playoff system that could work. With some creativity, I believe I have a plan worthy of discussion and debate.

An 8 team playoff system, built around the four major bowl games: The Rose Bowl, The Orange Bowl, The Sugar Bowl, and The Fiesta Bowl – perhaps once the Dallas Cowboys’ new stadium is unveiled, The Cotton Bowl can be a part of it, and the national title game could rotate amongst the five sites. Four games would be played on January 1st. The college football version of The Final Four would take place on January 8th. The following week, on January 15th, the NCAA National Championship Game would take place in the same location.

Here is how it would work: The six major conference champions would earn an automatic berth (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 10, and SEC). Teams with the highest ranking would automatically go to the natural bowl destination of its conference.

There would be a berth for one of the remaining conferences (Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and WAC). There is also one wild card, or At-Large berth. How would these two remaining teams be determined, you ask? By strength of schedule – no coaches’ vote, no media vote. Strength of schedule would be the fairest and surest way to determine which remaining two teams would get invited to the eight team playoff, and strength of schedule would also be the key determinant on the seeding of the playoff system. Let us suggest that The Cotton Bowl was the national championship site for last season, just for how this could have looked and worked. We will look at this scenario with brackets that show how my proposed system would work.

I used Jeff Sagarin’s last rankings from last season as the basis of this hypothetical situation. Again, if a team won one of the six major conferences, they are in. And if a team played a tough schedule (as you will see in my example below), they also have a shot at the title.



Using the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings, the six major conference winners (LSU, Southern California, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State) all would have qualified. Brigham Young, by virtue of its strength of schedule, would earn a shot (schedule rank # 59, versus Hawaii’s schedule rank of # 132). And Florida, despite not winning the SEC, would even be ranked # 1 going into the tournament, based on its strength of schedule that was ranked # 3.

Growing up and living in Ohio, and being a football fanatic for all levels, I have always enjoyed and respected how Ohio high school football teams are selected for the postseason. High school football teams in Ohio are based exclusively on computer points, with no biases or voting involved. Does the local media have polls ranking area high school teams? Absolutely - but they have NO say in determining if a team will be in the state football playoffs. It is purely a strength of schedule type system that rewards teams that play demanding schedules, while potentially penalizing those teams that do not play any tough opponents. It is not uncommon for teams to have a 6-4 or 7-3 regular season record and be selected for the Ohio high school playoffs over a 10-0 team that played weaker teams.

Two of the biggest problems within the current system are that the BCS title participants are determined by voting (the coaches and media). What is wrong with that, you ask?

If you have not yet done so, please do yourself a favor and read Stewart Mandel’s Bowls, Polls, & Tattered Souls. There are so many quotes throughout the book detailing the idiocy of how college football determines its national champion, but here are two that I believe sum up why the current system is a sham:

Why not the coaches, you ask? Read what longtime playoff advocate Penn State head coach Joe Paterno said , after his Penn State team was defeated by undefeated Michigan in 1997 ~ “I have somebody who helps me with the voting, and we didn’t vote Michigan No.1…That bothered me.” (page 44 of the hardcover edition)

Why not the media, you ask? Read what Daily Oklahoman columnist Jenni Carlson wrote regarding the impact the media has on college football, in comparison to other sports ~ “In no other sport do media types have say or sway. Not basketball, not baseball, not softball, not anything.” (page 48 of the hardcover edition).

Tomorrow, we will look at the benefits to my system, while also reviewing the traditional arguments against a playoff system. We can even look at how this tournament would look like in an eight-team bracket. Until then, I hope I have piqued your curiosity and will inspire you to post either for or against this type of a playoff system.

2 Articles From Brad Edwards of ESPN

Considering the poll I have regarding how college football determines its national champion, I found these recent articles from Brad Edwards of ESPN to be interesting. Edwards writes articles on the BCS for ESPN, and I found this first one regarding scheduling to be important - how many teams such as Ohio State or USC will play such big games when it can potentially eliminate the losing team from national championship contention?

The second article merely reinforces what I have been saying (and most of you have agreed with me on) that Ohio State needs to win over USC and be undefeated in order to have a title shot.

I hope you enjoy both articles. And if you have not done so yet, please vote in this week's poll and post regarding why you made your selection.

A New Poll From The Mind Of Minnich

In the next few days, I will be unveiling a college football playoff system that I believe would be the best method for determining college football's national champion. With that being said, I am curious to find out from you how you would determine the national champion if you had the final authority. Please vote in the poll, and please reply to this post with your system details.

Another New Feature From The Mind Of Minnich

Actually, less of a feature and more of a link that will be available on the right hand side of the blog, under "Ohio State Football Links" in the area that says Ohio State Football Database. Courtesy of The Columbus Dispatch, there is a searchable Ohio State database that users can look up information on how Ohio State has done throughout their history.

Article on Ohio football from Jason Lloyd

Jason Lloyd is the Ohio State beat writer for The Lorain Morning Journal, and today he has an article discussing Ohio State's recruiting efforts for this year. Most importantly, it discusses how teams such as Michigan State and Illinois are sniffing around Ohio and what that is doing for Ohio State's evaluation efforts. Enjoy.

2008 MS Excel helmet schedule link

For those of you who are like me and have enjoyed having or receiving the college football schedule in a MS Excel format, I found a site where it is available for download - Michigan Girls Are Fat. Yes sir, the name of the site is www.michigangirlsarefat.com. I have included a link that will take you directly to the schedules area, where you can download the file for a particular conference you are interested in, or the file that includes ALL conferences.

This year's file even includes hyperlinks to StubHub.com, in the event that you are interested in getting an idea on ticket prices or costs. Enjoy.

A New Feature From The Mind Of Minnich

At the request of Mr. Myers regarding the recently released USA Today Coaches Poll that shows Ohio State at an initial ranking of # 3 behind Georgia and USC, I wanted to find out how you believe Ohio State will do this coming season. I will periodically update the polling feature throughout the coming season, so please keep an eye out for the poll From The Mind Of Minnich.