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Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Will The Spartans Conquer The Buckeyes?

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Game Five: Michigan State Spartans

Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH. 3:30pm kickoff, ESPN

Head Coach: Mark Dantonio

Michigan State Players Who Were Recruited By Ohio State: DE William Gholston, LB Steve Gardiner, LB Lawrence Thomas, and TE Dion Sims. Although Michigan State has several Ohio players on its roster, the majority of them were not offered scholarships by Ohio State.

When Michigan State Is On Offense VS. Ohio State's Defense: If Ohio State's defense cannot shut down Michigan State's rushing attack with Edwin Baker, Le'Veon Bell, and Larry Caper, it could be a long day for the Buckeyes. Michigan State is a well-balanced offensive team, keyed by its running game.

QB Kirk Cousins is a heady, experienced passer with good receivers in Ohioan B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin. Cousins should be able to mix in play-action passing, to keep Ohio State off-balance defensively. The lack of a strong pass rush by the Buckeyes, and inconsistent tackling that was evident against Toledo and Miami (FL), make me give the edge to the Spartans here.

Edge: Michigan State.

When Ohio State Is On Offense VS Michigan State's Defense: Ohio State has relied upon its strong rushing attack to compensate for a developing, inexperienced passing attack. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, Michigan State enters into this game leading the conference in total defense, allowing only a little over 172 yards per game.

Look for Michigan State to put eight or nine in the box, daring true freshman QB Braxton Miller to throw. If Ohio State does not take advantage of single coverage on their wideouts, which I expect from the Spartans, it could make for a long day. Miller's quick feet may be needed to keep plays alive, as well as gain positive yardage.

Slight Edge: Michigan State.

Special Teams: Ohio State's special teams units seem to have come around over the past two contests. PK Drew Basil and P Ben Buchanan have turned in solid performances against Miami (FL) and Colorado. Michigan State has suffered a punt blocked against Central Michigan, and a kickoff returned for a touchdown against Notre Dame. Ohio State gets the edge in this area.

Edge: Ohio State.

Intangibles: As I wrote up above, Michigan State's roster is full of Ohio players who probably have a little more to prove for Ohio State not offering them a scholarship. Add in the fact that Ohio State has won the last four contests against the Spartans. As a matter of fact, Michigan State has not won in Ohio Stadium since...well, let's not go there. The crowd, and Ohio State's dominance in the recent contests, make this an even draw.

Edge: Even.

Prediction: I really want to pick Ohio State in this one. Considering how challenging Ohio State's October schedule appears, a victory over a solid Michigan State team could do wonders for the team's, and Braxton Miller's confidence. Then I remember how inconsistent Ohio State's passing game is, and how good of a defensive coach Mark Dantonio is, and how badly Dantonio will want to beat his former pupil in Luke Fickell, and I say...Michigan State 21, Ohio State 17.




Monday, September 26, 2011

The Big Ten Awaits - How Do The Buckeyes Measure Up?

At three wins and one loss as the calendar is turning to October, Ohio State fans are wondering what type of team the 2011 Buckeyes have as they prepare for the beginning of Big Ten conference play. Ohio State will play Michigan State, at Nebraska, at Illinois, and Wisconsin over the next five weeks, a stretch that will demonstrate if the Buckeyes are contenders or pretenders in the conference race.

How does Ohio State compare to other Big Ten teams offensively, defensively, and special teams? What can Ohio State fans expect as the season progresses?

The Offense

Ohio State's offense has had its share of highs (the Akron game) and lows (the Miami (FL) game), and lots of in-between (Toledo, Colorado). Ranking last in the conference at this stage in total offense at almost 341 yards per game, Ohio State may not improve dramatically in this area with a true freshman quarterback at the helm. Braxton Miller's mobility allows him to keep plays alive, but it could also be a concern for Ohio State fans, as Miller 1)fumbled the ball after a hit on a run against the Hurricanes, and 2) has had an injury history in his high school career. One can only wonder if the coaching staff will start to dial back on the designed quarterback runs as conference play begins.

The offensive line has played well, despite ongoing concerns about depth. The Buckeyes currently rank seventh in the conference at 184 yards per game rushing. The return of Mike Adams at offensive left tackle for the Nebraska game on October 8th will strengthen this unit tremendously. Considering Miller's inexperience, Ohio State has had to rely on its strong running game paved by the offensive line - with better opponents on the horizon, the offensive line will have its strongest challenges yet.

Jordan Hall has become the center piece of the offense. The versatility Hall provides as a runner, receiver, and returner makes me wonder how the coaching staff will use him once Daniel "Boom" Herron returns for the Nebraska game on October 8th. Carlos Hyde's physical running style may be needed to spell Hall and Herron.

Jake Stoneburner started off the season as the top receiving option for Ohio State, but has seen true freshman wide receiver Devin Smith become Braxton Miller's primary target. DeVier Posey's return in October can only help to take pressure off Stoneburner and Smith. The passing game, ranked eleventh in the conference at nearly 157 yards per game, will probably resemble the 2008 season in terms of simplicity, as Ohio State will have its share of growing pains with Braxton Miller at quarterback.

The Defense

"The Silver Bullets" have long been the strength of the team, and this year's edition seems to be no exception. Ranking fourth in the conference at allowing just over 276 yards of offense per game, Ohio State will need to continue its strong performance with the difficult conference games beginning.

The loss of defensive end Nathan Williams has hurt Ohio State's pass rush. Williams is scheduled to return against Nebraska, which will only bolster a strong unit led by John Simon. Ohio State has had ten sacks so far this season, tied for second with Wisconsin in the conference.

The linebacking crew, led by senior Andrew Sweat, have solidified the defense. Sweat and Etienne Sabino are leading the team in tackles, and look for true freshman Ryan Shazier to become a bigger factor entering conference play. If Braxton Miller is the impact freshman on offense, Shazier would qualify as the impact freshman player on defense.

The secondary seems to have taken a step in the right direction with the move of Christian Bryant into a safety position, alongside C.J. Barnett. The return of Travis Howard, combined with the solid play of cornerbacks Brad Roby and Dominic Clarke, make the secondary less of a concern going into Big Ten play.

The Special Teams

This area of the team continues to be an area of concern. Does Ohio State have its coverage units prepared for Big Ten play? Ohio State gave up its opening kickoff last year against Wisconsin. This year's team, as evidenced with the poor game against Miami (FL), is not built to come back from behind.

Punter Ben Buchanan had a rough game against Toledo with a blocked punt, but bounced back nicely against Miami (FL). Buchanan is averaging nearly 42 yards a punt, and strong play will be needed in Ohio State's upcoming contests for field position supremacy.

Place kicker Drew Basil started off poorly in the Akron and Toledo games, but has seemed to come around with his performaces against Miami (FL) and Colorado. The 47 yard field goal against Colorado can only help Basil's confidence. Considering Ohio State's immature passing game, and the level of competition increasing, Basil may be needed even more so in conference play for Ohio State to maximize all scoring opportunities within the red zone. Ohio State currently is tied with Purdue at seventh in red zone scoring opportunities.

As I wrote up above, October will demonstrate to Ohio State fans what type of team the 2011 Buckeyes have. Contender or pretender? Ohio State fans will know by the end of the month.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Buckeyes Declare It Is "Miller Time" Against Colorado

Recognizing that 1) Joe Bauserman's performance at quarterback has progressively declined since the opening game against Akron three weeks ago, and 2) that he could potentially be facing a lynch mob in Ohio Stadium on Saturday afternoon if he decided otherwise, Coach Luke Fickell announced that true freshman quarterback Braxton Miller will start against Colorado. It would be fair to say that Coach Fickell has not only decided to gamble Ohio State's 2011 season, but also his long-term coaching future at Ohio State.

One of my scouting mentors, the late Tony Razzano, taught me that a good scout never offers an opinion on something that they have not personally seen. Yes, you inevitably hear from other people their perspectives on different teams and players, but a good scout will block those opinions out until they have the opportunity to evaluate the opposition themselves.

Using that logic, I cannot adequately write up who and how Ohio State can or will defend against Colorado. I have not seen Colorado play this season, and I only know that the Buffaloes won their first game last weekend against Colorado State.

Having seen Ohio State play, and Braxton Miller, will allow me some ideas on how I would use Miller against Colorado. Keep in mind, for all Braxton Miller's talents, he is only going into his fourth college game, and his first as a starter.

Above all, look for the coaching staff to keep the game plan very simple, a la Terrelle Pryor's freshman season in 2008. While Pryor was a superior runner than Miller as a freshman, Miller would certainly rate with a stronger arm and better passing technique.

Look for a lot of quarterback rollouts and waggle plays, leaving Miller plenty of run/pass options. This will allow Miller to gain positive yardage, while also reducing his chances of mistakes. I am confident the coaching staff stressed the importance of throwing the ball out of bounds if nobody is open, as Joe Bauserman has done the previous three contests.

I would also expect Miller to play with minimal reads on his passing plays. If his first read is covered, and his second covered, look for Miller to take off scrambling. This is one of those areas that Terrelle Pryor became better at understanding during the latter portion of last season.

Undoubtedly, Colorado can and will be prepared for this simplistic attack. The best course of action is for Ohio State to come out throwing, which will not allow Colorado to stack the box defensively against Ohio State's rushing attack.

Jake Stoneburner was the target of an errant throw last game against Miami (FL). If Stoneburner can be isolated on a linebacker, he could become Miller's security blanket as a receiver.

More than even Braxton Miller, I look for Jordan Hall to be the focus of the team's offense. Hall demonstrated quickness and agility against the Hurricanes, and can be used as a runner, receiver, and punt returner for the Buckeyes. Like Stoneburner, Hall can create mismatches in the passing game.

Considering it is a home game, and the fans will be eager for something positive, I look for Ohio State to bounce back in a big way against Colorado. Although there will be bumps in the road with a true freshman quarterback, I am going to say Ohio State 28, Colorado 3.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Buckeyes Rocked By The Hurricanes, 24-6

Ohio State traveled to Miami in its quest to maintain its undefeated record, and establish an offensive identity. Losing 24-6 at Miami, Ohio State accomplished neither, in a game that rivals the 2001 Ohio State/UCLA (UCLA 13 - Ohio State 6) for offensive frustration and inadequacy. The Miami loss may have also ended any thought of Luke Fickell's chances of being named Ohio State's permanent head coach.

Miami won the coin toss, deferring until the second half. Ohio State, under quarterback Joe Bauserman, had a quick three and out drive that promptly gave the ball back to Miami very early. "Three and out" was a common theme for the Ohio State offense throughout this contest, and it was eerily foreshadowed on this initial unsuccessful drive.

On Miami's first possession, Lamar Miller nearly took the ball to the end zone on a 54 yard run. On a third and goal, Miami scored on a pass play from Jacory Harris to Allen Hurns, to give Miami a 7-0 lead.

On Ohio State's second possession, another three and out offensive series allowed the Hurricanes to get the ball back quickly. Ben Buchanan nailed a deep punt that Miami returner Travis Benjamin nearly returned for a touchdown. Methodically, Miami drove down the field, to set up another first and goal scenario at the Ohio State 3. Jacory Harris again found Allen Hurns in the end zone, making it Miami 14, Ohio State 0.

Freshman quarterback Braxton Miller entered the game, prompting Ohio State fans to expect a possible offensive spark. The spark came in the form of running back Jordan Hall, who responded immediately with back to back first down runs. Ohio State's good fortunes were squandered, as Miller's first pass attempt to tight end Jake Stoneburner was tipped and intercepted by Miami's JoJo Nicolas.

Before the first quarter concluded, Miami's Lamar Miller had gone over the 100 yard rushing mark. This game was beginning to ominously look like a blowout. Ohio State's C.J. Barnett was able to intercept Miami's Jacory Harris, who took a tremendous amount of time throwing deep.

Again, Jordan Hall responded with big plays, gaining consecutive first downs on big running plays into the heart of the Miami defense. Unfortunately, Braxton Miller was unable to complete a pass to Verlon Reed, forcing Ohio State to punt yet again.

After the Ohio State defense forced a Miami punt, Joe Bauserman returned as Ohio State's quarterback. Ohio State responded with its best offensive performance yet of the game. Mixing powerful running by both Jordan Hall and Carlos Hyde, Ohio State moved down the field on a drive that would have made Coach Woody Hayes proud. Carlos Hyde saved the drive, gaining a first down on a 3rd and 6 on a busted snap. At one point, Ohio State had a first and goal at the Miami 8, but two Jordan Hall runs, and an incomplete pass by Joe Bauserman pass to Chris Fields led Ohio State's Drew Basil to kick a 22 yard field goal to make it Miami 14, Ohio State 3.

Ohio State quickly intercepted Jacory Harris again, this time by Brad Roby. Joe Bauserman was the beneficiary of a roughing the passer play that again allowed Ohio State to set up within the Miami 10. A pass into the end zone for Jake Stoneburner was dropped, forcing Ohio State to again settle for a field goal to make it Miami 14, Ohio State 6.

Miami concluded the first half behind an acrobatic reception by wide receiver Tommy Streeter deep into Ohio State territory. Miami kicked a field goal to take a 17-6 halftime lead.

After halftime, Miami received the second half kickoff and the Ohio State defense forced a three and out, largely behind the hustle of defensive lineman John Simon. Jordan Hall had an impressive 27 yard punt return, setting up Ohio State in Miami territory. Hall suffered leg cramps, and did not seem to be the same after this play.

Joe Bauserman and the offense could not get anything going, giving the ball back to Miami. Ben Buchanan responded with a beautiful punt that pinned Miami on its 4 yard line.

The Miami offense, behind the running of Lamar Miller, were able to push out from their end zone to the Ohio State 41. On a 4th and 1 call, Storm Klein forced a Jacory Harris fumble, giving Ohio State possession of the ball.

Braxton Miller returned, almost giving the ball back to Miami on a fumble Miller recovered. This play must have terrified the coaching staff, as Joe Bauserman returned on the next play.

Again, Ohio State could not develop anything offensively. The same woes began to afflict Miami, as Ohio State forced a three and out, getting the ball back on the Ohio State 42. The third quarter concluded, with Ohio State's offensive statistics reading thusly: 12 plays, 6 yards gained, and 0 first downs.

As the fourth quarter began, Braxton Miller was brought back into the game. Behind designed quarterback runs, Ohio State began to march into Miami territory. On a first and ten at the Miami 46, Braxton Miller gained six yards on a run but was hit from behind, causing him to fumble. Miami recovered at the Hurricanes' 31 yard line.

Christian Bryant nearly came up with an interception that could have sparked Ohio State back into the game. Unfortunately for Buckeye fans, Jacory Harris was able to begin a drive with 9:21 remaining that was kept alive by a Jacory Harris scramble, and a key Tommy Streeter 15 yard reception on a 3rd and 10 play. The Ohio State defense had to be extremely fatigued, as Miami drove down the field, scoring a touchdown with under a minute to play to make it Miami 24, Ohio State 6. Remarkably, Luke Fickell and the Ohio State coaching staff never used any of their second half timeouts, a move that will undoubtedly be questioned and scrutinized.

The final combined Ohio State passing statistics by Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller, and they are brutal: 4 of 17 for 35 yards, no touchdowns, one interception.

What does this all mean?

The Akron game is looking more and more like an aberration, as Akron has been drilled by Temple (41-3) and Cincinnati (59-14) since Ohio State played them two weeks ago. The Toledo offensive frustrations of last week were evident in this loss to the Hurricanes.

While Braxton Miller may not be ready, the Ohio State coaching staff should start Miller against Colorado. While Joe Bauserman has given it his all, he is not the future of Ohio State football. Bauserman's statistics have declined steadily since the Akron game. Only further playing can help Braxton Miller, and the Colorado game is the best way to prepare Miller for what is appearing to be a treacherous October Big Ten schedule.

Nathan Williams' absence has been painfully noticeable. John Simon played his heart out against Miami, but the defensive line has not been getting any noticeable pass rush against either Toledo or Miami.

Lastly, Luke Fickell will come under some strong and deserving criticism for his clock management in this one. Knowing the struggles of the offense against the Hurricanes, why were all of the time outs kept, when the Ohio State defense could have used a quick break in that nearly nine minute drive at the end of the game?

In August of 2011, I wrote a story where I stated that the 2011 season was going to be a difficult transition year for Ohio State, and how the Miami game was the pivotal game of the season.

After the close Toledo victory, Coach Fickell was quoted, saying "I think and I hope that this is what's going to make us better, all the adversity" . Coach Fickell may be getting the opportunity to not only face adversity after this loss to the Hurricanes, but also determine his long-term future as the head coach of Ohio State.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Buckeyes Facing Hurricanes in "IneligiBowl"

Game Three: Miami Hurricanes

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL. 7:30pm kickoff, ESPN

Head Coach: Al Golden

Miami Players Who Were Recruited By Ohio State: TE Blake Ayles, DE Anthony Chickillo, WR Phillip Dorsett, OT Seantrel Henderson, G Brandon Linder, CB Brandon McGee, CB Keion Payne, S Kacy Rodgers

When Miami Is On Offense VS. Ohio State's Defense: Miami fought Maryland down to the wire in the first week, losing 32-24 in a continual downpour. Miami was without several key players who have been implicated in the Yahoo! Sports story that broke only before the season began.

QB Jacory Harris was one of the players named in the story, and Harris will return to face the Buckeyes. Harris threw four interceptions in the 36-24 loss to the Buckeyes last season, but supposedly has earned the starting quarterback job over Stephen Morris, who filled in for Harris against Maryland.

RBs Lamar Miller and Mike James are formidable running backs for the Hurricanes. Miller has tremendous breakaway speed, while James is a heavier back who averaged nearly six yards a carry last season. Miller returned a kickoff for a touchdown against Ohio State last season.

WR Travis Benjamin hurt Ohio State with a punt return for a touchdown last season, and returns as Miami's leading receiver. Like Harris, Benjamin is making his first start, after being implicated in the Yahoo! Sports story.

The Miami offensive line struggled against Maryland, allowing two sacks. Considering the current weather forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms, Miami may need to rely more on its running game against the Buckeyes.

Slight Edge: Ohio State. As much as I respect Lamar Miller's abilities, run defense is the strength of this Ohio State defense. And Jacory Harris needs to show me more than he traditionally has done. Both CBs Brad Roby and Dominic Clarke have played well this season in pass coverage, and the unit should only be bolstered with the return of CB Travis Howard from suspension.

When Ohio State Is On Offense VS Miami's Defense: QB Joe Bauserman will lead Ohio State against a Miami team welcoming back several players from suspension (defensive linemen Olivier Vernon, Marcus Forston, and Adewale Ojomo; linebacker Sean Spence, safety Ray-Ray Armstrong). While Bauserman was impressive in his opening series last week against Toledo, he struggled throughout the rest of the game.

Also troubling for Ohio State was the lack of push by the Buckeye offensive line. Toledo was able to essentially stop Ohio State's running game; what will the Hurricanes be able to do?

Look for TE Jake Stoneburner to be heavily involved in the passing game, along with emerging freshman WR Devin Smith. Stoneburner presents matchup problems for any defense who try to cover him with a linebacker.

The return of RB Jordan Hall from suspension provides some hope that Ohio State will incorporate both Hall and fellow RB Jaamal Berry more into the offense as both ball carriers and receiving options. While RB Carlos Hyde has been decent in the first two games, Hyde does not possess the agility and quickness of either Hall or Berry.

The enigma of true freshman QB Braxton Miller playing against the Hurricanes is also something to contemplate. Miller did not play last week against Toledo after suffering an ankle injury in practice. Could Miller become a part of the game plan, as his mobility could cause problems for Miami defensively?

Slight Edge: Ohio State. Even with Bauserman's struggles, as well as the offensive line's struggles, I believe Ohio State will attack Miami's secondary with Stoneburner enough. And I am not discounting Braxton Miller carrying the ball on designed quarterback runs, a la Craig Krenzel in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl against the Hurricanes.

Special Teams: Ohio State's woes in this area continue to be troublesome. P Ben Buchanan had a punt blocked against Toledo, PK Drew Basil has not yet made a field goal, and the coverage units are inconsistent at best. Considering how Miami returned kicks for scores against Ohio State last season, this is an easy one to give to Miami.

Edge: Miami

Intangibles: Both teams have been deluged with scandal, leading many to mockingly refer to this game as "The IneligiBowl". The heat and humidity should favor the Hurricanes, but I will not be surprised if there is a strong Ohio State fan contingency (Jim, Pav, and Kish - have a great time) that represents well to support the Buckeyes. Ohio State is still battling the loss of several key players, while the Hurricanes are getting several back for this game. And of course, the media will certainly have this little clip handy to run only about a thousand times during the lead-up to the game.

Edge: Miami

Prediction: I am truly struggling with making the call on this one. Can I overlook Ohio State's struggles against Toledo last week? Will Jacory Harris have another interception-laden game against Ohio State? Will the Ohio State offensive line perform better? Will Ohio State's special teams emerge as a positive?

Before the season began, I ranked this as one of the toughest Ohio State games this season, due to the suspensions the Buckeyes were facing...and this was before the Hurricanes' scandal erupted. Ohio State's performance could speak volumes on Luke Fickell's candidacy for the permanent head coaching job. I believe the return of Jordan Hall, and the possible usage of Braxton Miller, will help Ohio State survive this one. I am going Ohio State 28, Miami 24.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

(John) Simon Says No To Toledo Upset Of Ohio State, 27-22

On a day in Ohio Stadium where former Buckeye Mike Doss was inducted into the Ohio State Hall Of Fame, Ohio State escaped an upset at the hands of the Toledo Rockets in a game that reminded one of the close calls of the 2002 campaign.

Needing the Ohio State defense to stand tall in the final minute, Ohio State defensive lineman John Simon hurried Toledo quarterback Terrance Owens on a fourth down play. Ohio State won 27-22, but was outgained, and probably outplayed, by the valiant Toledo Rockets.

At the onset of the game, Ohio State effectively moved down the field to take an early 7-0 lead. Quarterback Joe Bauserman was able to build upon his strong showing in the Akron game, finding tight end Jake Stoneburner for a 26 yard touchdown pass early in the first quarter.

Toledo drove into Ohio State territory, but missed on a 45 yard field goal. Toledo was able to take the lead on the Buckeyes, after blocking a punt deep in Ohio State territory. Toledo scored on a 6 yard pass to wide receiver Eric Page, then executed a two-point conversion to take an 8-7 lead. Ohio State drove into Toledo territory, but Drew Basil missed on a 47 yard field goal attempt. Toledo increased its lead to 15-7, behind a long 66 yard touchdown pass and run, again to Eric Page.

Ohio State was able to cut down Toledo's lead to 15-14, behind the running of Carlos Hyde. Hyde burst down the left sideline for a 36 yard run. Ohio State's defense was able to force a Toledo punt, which wide receiver Chris Fields took 69 yards to the end zone, allowing Ohio State to enjoy a 21-15 halftime lead.

Ohio State's halftime lead was to be short-lived. Toledo moved down the field, behind the play of running back Adonis Thomas, who was helped with a facemask penalty incurred by Ohio State defensive back C.J. Barnett. Toledo scored with a Thomas run, taking a 22-21 lead into the fourth quarter.

Ohio State finally was able to secure the lead behind another Carlos Hyde touchdown run, giving Ohio State its 27-22 lead. Joe Bauserman found freshman wide receiver Devin Smith for a key 36 yard reception, allowing Hyde to score from two yards out.

It looked like Ohio State was going to run the clock out, as Toledo was forced to punt on three straight possessions in the fourth quarter. Joe Bauserman again hooked up with Devin Smith for a long 31 yard reception, and Ohio State seemed to be content to run out the clock with only about three minutes remaining. Rod Smith fumbled the ball back to Toledo, and Toledo began a drive that started to take on the feelings of the 2002 Ohio State/Cincinnati contest.

Toledo's Terrance Owens, who had thrown an earlier interception to linebacker Storm Klein, went for a long touchdown to wide receiver Bernard Reedy. Ohio State was saved by defensive back Dominic Clarke, who knocked the ball away at the last moments to save a touchdown. Owens began patiently and effectively moving Toledo into Ohio State territory. Key plays were when Owens was called for intentional grounding - the very next play, Owens connected with Eric Page on a 4th and 14 for 19 yards to keep the drive going for Toledo.

With time running out, and having used two timeouts, Toledo needed to continue to gain first downs to pull off the upset. Ohio State's defensive strategy moved from one of pressure to one of flooding the secondary, making it more difficult to get deep. John Simon, having returned to the game, applied the pressure on Owens on a 4th and 6 attempt that finally allowed Ohio State fans to exhale.

Ohio State was never able to truly get anything going offensively against Toledo. Ohio State was only able to run for 112 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Joe Bauserman did not throw any interceptions, but besides his first quarter pass to Jake Stoneburner, seemed to regress as the game progressed, appearing less confident in his decisions with the ball. True freshman quarterback Braxton Miller never played, leaving many to wonder how much confidence the coaching staff truly has in Miller.

Defensively, Ohio State was off balance against Toledo, allowing Page and Thomas to turn in strong performances. As last week, Dominic Clarke made key plays when needed.

Lefty Gomez, who played for the New York Yankees in the 1930s, once stated, "I'd rather be lucky than good.". One wonders if Gomez would have applied those thoughts to the 2011 Ohio State Buckeyes. Between now and next week's contest against the Miami Hurricanes, Ohio State fans can only hope that the Buckeyes have both attributes available as they will go into a very hostile environment, with Miami fans eagerly revisiting the 2003 Fiesta Bowl national championship game.

(This post originally appeared on Along The Olentangy, 09/10/2011)

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Ohio State Looks To Ground Rockets In Ohio Stadium

Game Two: Ohio State vs. Toledo

Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH). 12pm EST kickoff, Big Ten Network

Head Coach: Tim Beckman

Toledo Players Who Were Recruited By Ohio State: DL Andre Sturdivant from Cleveland Glenville. Sturdivant actually chose Toledo over Penn State on signing day in 2011. Toledo QB Terrance Owens is from Cleveland Glenville and visited Ohio State unofficially, but was never offered a scholarship.

Toledo Rushing Offense vs Ohio State Defense: Toledo rushed for 287 yards against New Hampshire in its opening game last week. No disrespect to New Hampshire, but I believe the Rockets will find running the ball against Ohio State to be a tad more difficult. The key runner for Toledo is RB Adonis Thomas, who had 115 yards in the win over New Hampshire. 46 of those yards came on one carry, so again, I have to take those statistics carefully when I consider the caliber of competition.

Edge: Ohio State

Toledo Passing Offense vs Ohio State Defense: Here is where I am more concerned. Toledo has two capable quarterbacks in Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens; both players threw for at least two touchdowns in the opener against New Hampshire. More importantly, Ohio State did not seem to get a strong pass rush against Akron, while Toledo is a stronger and better team than the Zips. Throw in the relative inexperience of Ohio State's secondary, and I am going to give the Rockets the slight edge here in this category.

Slight Edge: Toledo

Ohio State Rushing Offense vs Toledo Defense: Similar to how Ohio State played against Akron, I look for Ohio State to pound away at Toledo with RBs Carlos Hyde and Rod Smith. If Ohio State can control the clock by running the ball and wearing down the Toledo defense, it would not surprise me, as Ohio State's quarterbacks and receivers are relatively inexperienced.

Edge: Ohio State

Ohio State Passing Offense vs Toledo Defense: QB Joe Bauserman responded beautifully in his first career start, throwing for three touchdowns and scoring a rushing touchdown against Akron. TE Jake Stoneburner emerged, as I suspected he would, as Bauserman's favorite target. Freshman quarterback Braxton Miller played well in the second half against Akron, so look for another rotation by Bauserman and Miller against Toledo.

Edge: Ohio State

Special Teams: PK Drew Basil missed a 40 yard field goal against Akron, meaning he has never kicked a field goal in his attempts at Ohio State. In addition, the kickoff coverage was better against Akron, but there is always room for improvement in this area after all of the troubles Ohio State has had over the last few seasons.

Edge: Even

Intangibles: Toledo is no stranger to being a giant killer, having defeated Purdue, Colorado, and Michigan over the last three seasons. Throw in the facts that Tim Beckman is a former Ohio State assistant, who would love to have the Ohio State job, plus all of the Toledo players who feel slighted by not being recruited by Ohio State, and I believe you will see why I give Toledo the edge here.

Edge: Toledo

Prediction: The oddsmakers have Ohio State as a 19 point favorite, which may be a tad too high. I believe this game will be closer than Ohio State fans want to believe. Yes, Ohio State crushed LinkAkron, but Akron was a 1-11 team in 2010. Toledo was a bowl team last season, and is arguably the best team in the MAC this season.

I believe Ohio State will be ahead at the half, then start to pull away by the middle of the fourth quarter behind a strong running game, and another decent performance by QB Joe Bauserman. I am going with Ohio State 35, Toledo 17.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

[ESPN.com - Big Ten Blog]: The Big Ten's complete division tiebreakers

Feed: ESPN.com - Big Ten Blog
Posted on: Thursday, September 01, 2011 10:55 AM
Author: Adam Rittenberg
Subject: The Big Ten's complete division tiebreakers

 

The Big Ten on Thursday released its tiebreaker procedures for determining division winners. Included in the tiebreakers is the ruling that any team unable to play in a postseason bowl game because of Big Ten or NCAA sanctions is ineligible to participate in the Big Ten championship game.

Although Ohio State seems unlikely to be hit with a bowl ban, its fate for the Big Ten championship game rests with the NCAA's Committee on Infractions, which will rule on the school's case sometime in the next two months.

OK, let's get to the tiebreaker procedures.

Here's the basic one: When two teams tie atop the division, the winner of their head-to-head matchup goes to the league title game.

It gets more complex when three or more teams tie atop a division. The following seven methods will be used, in order, to determine a champion or reduce the group to two teams, where a head-to-head tiebreaker then can be used:

  • Records of the tied teams are compared with each other
  • Records of the tied teams are compared within the division
  • Records of the teams are compared against the next-highest teams within the division
  • Records are compared against all common conference opponents
  • The team ranked highest in the BCS standings after the regular season goes to the league championship game unless it is ranked within one spot of another tied team. In this case, the head-to-head result of the two teams determines the division champion
  • The team with the highest overall win percentage (outside of exempted games)
  • The division champion will be chosen by random draw


Here's hoping it never reaches the random draw stage (highly unlikely).

The item concerning the BCS standings is interesting. At the Big Ten spring meetings coaches and administrators discussed whether the BCS standings should play any role in determining division winners. Although the standings could determine division winners, they're not as high on the tiebreaker list as they were before. Plus, they're not determining BCS bowl berths any more, just the chance to earn one in the title game.

The BCS standings determined the Big Ten's automatic BCS bowl berth last year, as Wisconsin went to the Rose Bowl ahead of both Ohio State and Michigan State. Wisconsin finished No. 5 in the final BCS standings, one spot ahead of Ohio State and four spots ahead of Michigan State, which handed the Badgers their only regular-season loss. If the new format applied to these three teams, Wisconsin would go to the Big Ten title game because of its head-to-head win against Ohio State.

The complex tiebreakers also include procedures if a team ineligible for the championship game finishes atop the division standings.

  • If the ineligible team is tied for the division championship, the team it tied with shall be the Big Ten championship game representative.
  • If two or more teams are tied with an ineligible team for the division championship, the ineligible team is removed and the remaining teams revert to the tiebreak procedure.
  • The division runner-up shall be the Big Ten championship game representative.
  • If there is a division runner-up tie, then the tied teams shall revert to the tiebreak procedure.


Now I thought the dreaded "co-champions" tag died with the old Big Ten, but there's still a small chance it could be used. If for some odd reason the Big Ten title game can't be played, the two division winners will be labeled co-champs. The Big Ten's automatic BCS bowl berth then would be determined by the following tiebreakers:

  • Teams ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS poll will automatically be placed in the BCS championship game.
  • If the two divisional representatives met previously in the season and neither is ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS standings, the team ranked highest in the final BCS standings shall be the representative to the BCS, unless the other team is ranked within five or fewer places of the higher ranked team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the two teams shall determine the conference’s BCS representative.
  • If the two divisional representatives did not meet previously during the season, the team ranked highest in the BCS standings shall be the BCS representative.
  • If the two teams are tied in the BCS standings, the team with the best overall Big Ten record shall be the BCS representative.
  • If the two teams remain tied, the team with the best combined record of the tied teams against all common Big Ten opponents each team played that season shall be the BCS representative.
  • If the two teams remain tied, the representative will be the team with the best overall winning percentage.
  • If the two teams remain tied, the representative will be the team furthest removed from BCS participation.
  • If the two teams remain tied, the representative shall be determined by a random draw.


Got all that?

The most likely scenario we'll see in the new Big Ten is three teams tying for the division lead. These tiebreaker procedures underscore the importance of division games, a point I've tried to stress for a while now. If all three tied teams are 1-1 against each other, the team or teams with the best division records are rewarded. Division games simply matter more, and while teams like Nebraska and Ohio State have tough crossover schedules this year, both squads benefit from playing top division opponents at home.

These procedures should help you start to look at the Big Ten a little differently. Teams can survive losses outside the division, but if they stumble within the division, they won't be going to Indy.


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